Above: The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite acquired this natural-color image of Typhoon Lekima (left) and Tropical Storm Krosa (right) at about 04:30 Universal Time (1:30 p.m. Japan Standard Time) on August 7, 2019. Annotated image from NASA Earth Observatory.
Tropical cyclones, also known as typhoons and hurricanes, have occurred for millennia.
There has been no increase in the number or intensity of tropical cyclones since 1972 as the planet has modestly warmed, and some data suggests tropical cyclone frequency has actually declined over the past century.
Even the U.N. IPCC agrees, finding it can detect no increase in the frequency or severity of tropical cyclones.
Short Summary:
Devastating tropical cyclones have been common in coastal regions and islands around the world long before the invention of automobiles and coal-fired power plants.1 Present-day real-world data shows little or no effect of global warming, aka climate change, on tropical cyclone frequency or intensity.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2018 interim report states there is “only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences.”2 In its AR6 WG1 report, released in August 2021, the IPCC noted,
“Identifying past trends in TC [tropical storm] metrics remains a challenge,” a statement that essentially admits scientists have yet to identify a solid measurable upward trend in the data.3
The IPCC’s findings are well supported by objective tropical storm data. See Figures 1 and 2.4, 5
Figure 1: Graph showing global tropical cyclone frequency since 1970
Figure 1. This figure shows that global hurricane and tropical cyclone activity is not increasing. Even with the slight uptick in the number of tropical storms in 2021, it is still below the peak recorded in 1971. Source: Ryan N. Maue, “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity,” Climate Atlas, accessed April 20, 2023, http://climatlas.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png.
Additionally, the amount of accumulated energy contained in tropical cyclones, known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has also been measured since 1972, and as shown in Figure 2, there is no obvious increase in ACE. In fact, the value of ACE is lower in 2022 than it was in 1972. This data strongly suggests that tropical cyclones have not become more powerful since the globe began modestly warming in the late 19th century.
Figure 2. Last 50-years+ of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE. Source: Ryan N. Maue, “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity,” Climate Atlas, accessed April 20, 2023, https://climatlas.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png
Multiple other studies suggest that over the past century, the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones have declined, with one report finding a 13 percent decrease in tropical cyclones between 1850 and 2012.6, 7, 8
Burn, M., Palmer, S. Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium. Sci Rep 5, 12838 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12838
Sonia Seneviratne and Neville Nicholls, coordinating lead authors, et al., “Changes
in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment,”
Chapter 3, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge
University Press, 2012), accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/
uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap3_FINAL-1.pdf
Sonia I. Seneviratne and Xuebin Zhang, coordinating lead authors, et al., “Weather
and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate,” Chapter 11, Climate Change
2021: The Physical Science Basis. A Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge,
U.K.: Cambridge University Press, in press, August 2021), accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.
pdf
Chand, S.S., Walsh, K.J.E., Camargo, S.J. et al.Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming. Clim. Chang.12, 655–661 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, “Global
Warming Increases Wind Shear, Reduces Tropical cyclones, Climate Model Shows,” Science
Daily, April 18, 2007, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070417182843.
htm
Above: The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite acquired this natural-color image of Typhoon Lekima (left) and Tropical Storm Krosa (right) at about 04:30 Universal Time (1:30 p.m. Japan Standard Time) on August 7, 2019. Annotated image from NASA Earth Observatory.
Tropical cyclones, also known as typhoons and hurricanes, have occurred for millennia.
There has been no increase in the number or intensity of tropical cyclones since 1972 as the planet has modestly warmed, and some data suggests tropical cyclone frequency has actually declined over the past century.
Even the U.N. IPCC agrees, finding it can detect no increase in the frequency or severity of tropical cyclones.
Short Summary:
Devastating tropical cyclones have been common in coastal regions and islands around the world long before the invention of automobiles and coal-fired power plants.1 Present-day real-world data shows little or no effect of global warming, aka climate change, on tropical cyclone frequency or intensity.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2018 interim report states there is “only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences.”2 In its AR6 WG1 report, released in August 2021, the IPCC noted,
“Identifying past trends in TC [tropical storm] metrics remains a challenge,” a statement that essentially admits scientists have yet to identify a solid measurable upward trend in the data.3
The IPCC’s findings are well supported by objective tropical storm data. See Figures 1 and 2.4, 5
Figure 1: Graph showing global tropical cyclone frequency since 1970
Figure 1. This figure shows that global hurricane and tropical cyclone activity is not increasing. Even with the slight uptick in the number of tropical storms in 2021, it is still below the peak recorded in 1971. Source: Ryan N. Maue, “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity,” Climate Atlas, accessed April 20, 2023, http://climatlas.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png.
Additionally, the amount of accumulated energy contained in tropical cyclones, known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has also been measured since 1972, and as shown in Figure 2, there is no obvious increase in ACE. In fact, the value of ACE is lower in 2022 than it was in 1972. This data strongly suggests that tropical cyclones have not become more powerful since the globe began modestly warming in the late 19th century.
Figure 2. Last 50-years+ of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE. Source: Ryan N. Maue, “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity,” Climate Atlas, accessed April 20, 2023, https://climatlas.com/tropical/global_running_ace.png
Multiple other studies suggest that over the past century, the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones have declined, with one report finding a 13 percent decrease in tropical cyclones between 1850 and 2012.6, 7, 8
Burn, M., Palmer, S. Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium. Sci Rep 5, 12838 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12838
Sonia Seneviratne and Neville Nicholls, coordinating lead authors, et al., “Changes
in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment,”
Chapter 3, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge
University Press, 2012), accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/
uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap3_FINAL-1.pdf
Sonia I. Seneviratne and Xuebin Zhang, coordinating lead authors, et al., “Weather
and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate,” Chapter 11, Climate Change
2021: The Physical Science Basis. A Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge,
U.K.: Cambridge University Press, in press, August 2021), accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.
pdf
Chand, S.S., Walsh, K.J.E., Camargo, S.J. et al.Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming. Clim. Chang.12, 655–661 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, “Global
Warming Increases Wind Shear, Reduces Tropical cyclones, Climate Model Shows,” Science
Daily, April 18, 2007, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070417182843.
htm
