Climate at a Glance: Malaria and Mosquito-Borne Diseases

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Bullet-Point Summary:

  • The number of global malaria deaths is declining, not increasing, as the world continues its modest warming.
  • The global death toll for malaria has been cut in half since 2000.
  • There have been no malaria deaths in North America or Europe since 1990, even though malaria deaths were frequent on both continents in the early 1900s – 100 years of global warming ago.
  • If global warming causes an uptick in malaria, the world should already have seen a substantial increase in malaria cases and deaths, not the dramatic and beneficial decline we continue to experience.

Short Summary:

Claims that warming temperature will cause more malaria cases and deaths are contradicted by real-world evidence. As the Earth warms, malaria cases and deaths are declining in all areas of the world. If global warming causes more malaria cases, we certainly should have witnessed more malaria cases and deaths by now.

The World Health Organization (WHO) publishes global estimates of the number of people that die from malaria. Since 2000, according to the WHO, the global death toll has been cut in half – from 839,000 deaths in 2000 to 438,000 in 2015.

Africa is the world region that is most affected by malaria, with 9 out of 10 malaria victims being Africans. As shown in Figure 1, Africa is also the world region that has achieved the most progress as the Earth modestly warms. From 2000 to 2015, African deaths from malaria were reduced from 764,000 to 395,000.

Figure1: Source: Our World in Data, plotted from WHO data at http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.14117?lang=en

As detailed in Chapter Four of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels, the vast body of scientific literature refutes climate alarmist claims that climate change is likely to exacerbate the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.

Strikingly, North America and Europe report zero deaths from malaria since 1990, 30 years of global warming ago.

There is simply no link at all between malaria/mosquito-borne diseases and a modestly warming world.

Further reading:

  1. Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, ISBN 978-1-934791-59-2 2019. http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
  2. Malaria and global warming – no linkage, 2011, WattsUpWithThat.com https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/04/malaria-and-global-warming-no-linkage/
  3. Global warming wilts malaria, Transmission of infectious parasites slows with rising temperatures, researchers find. Nature, 2011. https://www.nature.com/news/global-warming-wilts-malaria-1.9695
  4. NPR Makes False Connection Between Climate Change and Disease, 2020, climaterealism.com http://climaterealism.com/2020/08/npr-makes-false-connection-between-climate-change-and-disease/