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- As the Earth modestly warms, there has been a reduction in climate-related refugees rather than an increase.
- The asserted causes of climate-refugees – increasing crop failures, catastrophic weather events, and islands lost to rising seas – have failed to occur.
- A majority of islands predicted to shed climate refugees due to sea-level rise are growing, not shrinking.
- Almost all nations asserted to shed climate refugees due to crop failures are benefiting from steadily increasing crop yields.
- The United Nations confirms climate-related disasters have been declining this century.
Short Summary: For the past 30 years, climate activists have claimed that islands, cities, and even entire nations will spawn millions of refugees as climate change makes them uninhabitable. In 1989, for example, a senior U.N. environmental official claimed, “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.”Also, in 2005, the U.N. claimed, “Rising sea levels…will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade.” Yet, neither of those predictions has come true, and the U.N. “disappeared” the latter claim from its website.
As documented in Climate at a Glance: Islands and Sea Level Rise, most small islands, including the “canary island in the coal mine, Tuvalu,” are growing in size rather than shrinking. As documented in Climate at a Glance: Crop Production, almost every nation on Earth is benefiting from steadily increasing crop yields as the Earth modestly warms. And as documented by United Nations data, the number of climate-related disasters has been declining this century.
In summary, all asserted factors leading to climate refugees are becoming less severe as the Earth modestly warms, causing a decline rather than an increase in climate refugees.
30 Year Anniversary of the UN 1989 “10 years to save the world” Climate Warning, Eric Worrall, WattsUpWithThat, June 2019 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/30/30-year-anniversary-of-the-un-1989-10-years-to-save-the-world-climate-warning/
50 million environmental refugees by end of decade, UN warns, The Guardian, October 2005 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/oct/12/naturaldisasters.climatechange1
The UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees, then botches the disappearing attempt, WattsUpWithThat, April 2011 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-disappearing-attempt/
Failed Kiribati Climate Refugee finally leaves New Zealand, Eric Worrall, WattsUpWithThat, September 2015 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/22/failed-kiribati-climate-refugee-finally-leaves-new-zealand/
Climate at a Glance: Islands and Sea Level Rise, The Heartland Institute, 2020 https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-islands-and-sea-level-rise/
Climate at a Glance: Crop Production, The Heartland Institute, 2020 https://climateataglance.com/crop-production/
UN Disasters Report Is A Huge Blunder And Embarrassment, October 2020 https://www.thegwpf.com/un-disasters-report-is-a-huge-blunder-and-embarrassment/