Arkansas has warmed merely 0.5°F since 1900, significantly lower than the national and global averages.
There are far fewer very hot summer days in recent decades than during the first half of the twentieth century.
A modest gradual increase in precipitation since 1900 has benefitted agriculture, especially rice.
Dangerous tornadoes have not increased over time.
Riverine flooding does not appear to have any increasing trend.
Short Summary:
Temperature Trends:
Arkansas is dominated by what is called a “humid subtropical climate.”1 This means winter temperatures typically do not drop below freezing for very long and summers are hot and humid.
Arkansas has only warmed 0.5°F since 1900, significantly less than the average for the rest of the United States and the world.2 The slight warming trend is largely due to a small decline in the number of days with sub-zero degree Fahrenheit temperatures. However, there has been a larger decline in the number of extremely hot days since the 1950s.3 A modest increase in “very warm nights” is also noted since 1900, but this is likely driven primarily by the Urban Heat Island Effect, which influences overnight temperatures strongly. This happens because local heat sources associated with urbanization, like hard surfaces such as concrete and steel, vehicles, air conditioning and heating units, and other machinery release absorbed heat after the sun goes down.4
Figure 1: Chart from the 2022 NCEI state climate summary. Observed annual number of very hot days in Arkansas from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values, bars show averages over 5-year periods, with the last year being a 6-year average. The horizontal black line shows the long-term average.
Precipitation:
Long term data indicate that Arkansas has seen a modest increase in annual precipitation since 1900, and no increase in drought conditions.5
State-Specific Issues:
Tornadoes
Arkansas is prone to tornado outbreaks associated with severe thunderstorms. While raw data counting the number of tornadoes spotted in Arkansas since 1950 suggests there has been an increase in tornadoes over that period,6 this is misleading. The creation and widespread deployment of doppler radar in the 1990s made it possible to spot far more storms than in the past, inflating recent numbers. Since 2000, there is no increasing trend in the number of tornadoes. Moreover, data show that the number of severe tornadoes, EF3 and higher, which were more likely to have been spotted in the past even before Doppler, have not increased since records began in 1950, and may have declined.7
Figure 2: Figure from the CO2 Coalition report, “Arkansas and Climate Change.”
Flooding
An analysis done by the CO2 Coalition on historic river crests in two major rivers impacting Arkansas, the Mississippi River and Arkansas River, shows that river flooding has not become more frequent or severe in Arkansas over time.8 River cresting height has increased in the Arkansas River since 2000, but this seems due to a recovery from historic lows.
This is consistent with a recorded spike in “3-inch extreme precipitation events” in Arkansas during the twentieth century, but there is no indication of a long-term upward trend in those events since industrial emissions of carbon dioxide began.9
Agriculture:
Arkansas is a state rich in farmland. It leads the country in rice production and also produces large quantities of soybeans and soft red winter wheat.
Rice, a vital crop for Arkansas, has seen an incredible increase in pounds harvested per acre over time, increasing 417 percent since 1905.10
Figure 3: Rice yields in pounds per acre for Arkansas since 1905. Data from USDA QuickStats.
The same is true for soybeans, which have seen a yield increase of an incredible 761 percent since 1904. In 2024, Arkansas experienced a new record high soybean yield.11
Also, wheat yields have skyrocketed over time in Arkansas and continue to do so, surging 558 percent since 1900.12
Conclusion:
Arkansas has experienced only modest recent warming, and the frequency of very hot days has decreased. It appears that Arkansas has significantly benefitted from the very minimal climate change that the state has experienced. Major crops are experiencing better production amid improvements in precipitation and very limited drought. Dangerous and deadly tornadoes are not getting worse, and extreme summer heat has not worsened.
Arkansas has warmed merely 0.5°F since 1900, significantly lower than the national and global averages.
There are far fewer very hot summer days in recent decades than during the first half of the twentieth century.
A modest gradual increase in precipitation since 1900 has benefitted agriculture, especially rice.
Dangerous tornadoes have not increased over time.
Riverine flooding does not appear to have any increasing trend.
Short Summary:
Temperature Trends:
Arkansas is dominated by what is called a “humid subtropical climate.”1 This means winter temperatures typically do not drop below freezing for very long and summers are hot and humid.
Arkansas has only warmed 0.5°F since 1900, significantly less than the average for the rest of the United States and the world.2 The slight warming trend is largely due to a small decline in the number of days with sub-zero degree Fahrenheit temperatures. However, there has been a larger decline in the number of extremely hot days since the 1950s.3 A modest increase in “very warm nights” is also noted since 1900, but this is likely driven primarily by the Urban Heat Island Effect, which influences overnight temperatures strongly. This happens because local heat sources associated with urbanization, like hard surfaces such as concrete and steel, vehicles, air conditioning and heating units, and other machinery release absorbed heat after the sun goes down.4
Figure 1: Chart from the 2022 NCEI state climate summary. Observed annual number of very hot days in Arkansas from 1900 to 2020. Dots show annual values, bars show averages over 5-year periods, with the last year being a 6-year average. The horizontal black line shows the long-term average.
Precipitation:
Long term data indicate that Arkansas has seen a modest increase in annual precipitation since 1900, and no increase in drought conditions.5
State-Specific Issues:
Tornadoes
Arkansas is prone to tornado outbreaks associated with severe thunderstorms. While raw data counting the number of tornadoes spotted in Arkansas since 1950 suggests there has been an increase in tornadoes over that period,6 this is misleading. The creation and widespread deployment of doppler radar in the 1990s made it possible to spot far more storms than in the past, inflating recent numbers. Since 2000, there is no increasing trend in the number of tornadoes. Moreover, data show that the number of severe tornadoes, EF3 and higher, which were more likely to have been spotted in the past even before Doppler, have not increased since records began in 1950, and may have declined.7
Figure 2: Figure from the CO2 Coalition report, “Arkansas and Climate Change.”
Flooding
An analysis done by the CO2 Coalition on historic river crests in two major rivers impacting Arkansas, the Mississippi River and Arkansas River, shows that river flooding has not become more frequent or severe in Arkansas over time.8 River cresting height has increased in the Arkansas River since 2000, but this seems due to a recovery from historic lows.
This is consistent with a recorded spike in “3-inch extreme precipitation events” in Arkansas during the twentieth century, but there is no indication of a long-term upward trend in those events since industrial emissions of carbon dioxide began.9
Agriculture:
Arkansas is a state rich in farmland. It leads the country in rice production and also produces large quantities of soybeans and soft red winter wheat.
Rice, a vital crop for Arkansas, has seen an incredible increase in pounds harvested per acre over time, increasing 417 percent since 1905.10
Figure 3: Rice yields in pounds per acre for Arkansas since 1905. Data from USDA QuickStats.
The same is true for soybeans, which have seen a yield increase of an incredible 761 percent since 1904. In 2024, Arkansas experienced a new record high soybean yield.11
Also, wheat yields have skyrocketed over time in Arkansas and continue to do so, surging 558 percent since 1900.12
Conclusion:
Arkansas has experienced only modest recent warming, and the frequency of very hot days has decreased. It appears that Arkansas has significantly benefitted from the very minimal climate change that the state has experienced. Major crops are experiencing better production amid improvements in precipitation and very limited drought. Dangerous and deadly tornadoes are not getting worse, and extreme summer heat has not worsened.
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