View this page as a printable PDF here: CAAG-Is Climate Change Real?

Key Takeaways:

  • Climate change is real and normal, contrary to assertions, there is no “climate crisis.”
  • Climate has changed throughout Earth’s history.
  • Predicted climate catastrophes have not materialized.
  • Recent climate change has benefited humanity.

Short Summary:

Climate change is and has been real, but there cannot be a “climate crisis” based on global warming when temperatures are unusually cold historically, not hot.1 As illustrated in Figure 1, even with recent warming, temperatures remain colder than what has been the case during most of the era of human civilization, the past 6,000 years.

Figure 1: Temperature reconstruction from present day to 11,300 years ago showing the warmer than today period known as the Holocene Climate Optimum.
Figure 1: Temperature reconstruction from present day to 11,300 years ago showing the warmer than today period known as the Holocene Climate Optimum.

None of the climate catastrophes that have often predicted to occur due to the recent modest warming have done so.  By contrast, the recent warming and rise in greenhouse gases have produced many substantial benefits. There has been no increase in hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, wildfires, or other extreme weather events.2,3,4,5,6 Even if we accept that humans are influencing climate, the notion that we’re in an “existential crisis” is unproven. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees, suggesting a “low confidence” in many current and future weather events being affected by climate change.7 The “existential crisis” view is heavily dependent on climate model projections, which are notoriously uncertain and refuted by data.8

On the other hand, we are benefiting from a dramatic increase in global vegetation and record-setting  global crop yields.9,10 Moreover, cold kills up to 20 times more people globally than heat.11 As a result, the recent modest warming has literally saved millions of lives.

To conclude, while climate change is real, it’s a normal part of Earth’s history. There is no climate crisis.


References:

  1. S.A. Marcott et al., Science, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, 8 Mar 2013, Vol 339, Issue 6124, pp. 1198-1201 DOI: 10.1126/science.1228026, accessed 4/2/25, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1228026
  2. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-hurricanes/
  3. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Tornadoes, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-tornadoes/
  4. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Drought, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-drought/
  5. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Floods, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-floods/
  6. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Global Wildfires, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-global-wildfires/
  7. United Nations IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) in time periods, – Chapter 12, Table 12.12, Page 90, accessed 4/2/25, https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
  8. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Climate Model Fallibility, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-climate-model-fallibility/
  9. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Global Greening, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-global-greening/
  10. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Crop Production, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/crop-production/
  11. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Temperature Related Deaths, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-temperature-related-deaths/

Climate At A Glance is a Project of The Heartland Institute

Email think@heartland.org

View this page as a printable PDF here: CAAG-Is Climate Change Real?

Key Takeaways:

  • Climate change is real and normal, contrary to assertions, there is no “climate crisis.”
  • Climate has changed throughout Earth’s history.
  • Predicted climate catastrophes have not materialized.
  • Recent climate change has benefited humanity.

Short Summary:

Climate change is and has been real, but there cannot be a “climate crisis” based on global warming when temperatures are unusually cold historically, not hot.1 As illustrated in Figure 1, even with recent warming, temperatures remain colder than what has been the case during most of the era of human civilization, the past 6,000 years.

Figure 1: Temperature reconstruction from present day to 11,300 years ago showing the warmer than today period known as the Holocene Climate Optimum.
Figure 1: Temperature reconstruction from present day to 11,300 years ago showing the warmer than today period known as the Holocene Climate Optimum.

None of the climate catastrophes that have often predicted to occur due to the recent modest warming have done so.  By contrast, the recent warming and rise in greenhouse gases have produced many substantial benefits. There has been no increase in hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, wildfires, or other extreme weather events.2,3,4,5,6 Even if we accept that humans are influencing climate, the notion that we’re in an “existential crisis” is unproven. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees, suggesting a “low confidence” in many current and future weather events being affected by climate change.7 The “existential crisis” view is heavily dependent on climate model projections, which are notoriously uncertain and refuted by data.8

On the other hand, we are benefiting from a dramatic increase in global vegetation and record-setting  global crop yields.9,10 Moreover, cold kills up to 20 times more people globally than heat.11 As a result, the recent modest warming has literally saved millions of lives.

To conclude, while climate change is real, it’s a normal part of Earth’s history. There is no climate crisis.


References:

  1. S.A. Marcott et al., Science, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, 8 Mar 2013, Vol 339, Issue 6124, pp. 1198-1201 DOI: 10.1126/science.1228026, accessed 4/2/25, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1228026
  2. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-hurricanes/
  3. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Tornadoes, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-tornadoes/
  4. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Drought, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-drought/
  5. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Floods, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-floods/
  6. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Global Wildfires, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-global-wildfires/
  7. United Nations IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) in time periods, – Chapter 12, Table 12.12, Page 90, accessed 4/2/25, https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
  8. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Climate Model Fallibility, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-climate-model-fallibility/
  9. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Global Greening, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-global-greening/
  10. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Crop Production, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/crop-production/
  11. The Heartland Institute, Climate at a Glance: Temperature Related Deaths, accessed 4/2/25, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-temperature-related-deaths/

Climate At A Glance is a Project of The Heartland Institute

Email think@heartland.org