Average annual temperatures have increased a modest 1.5°F since 1900 in Virginia.
There has been no increase in extremely hot days in the state.
Virginia has seen a slight increase in precipitation in recent decades, benefiting agriculture.
Extreme weather such as hurricanes is not getting worse.
Staple crops like corn, hay, wheat, and cotton have seen increasing yields.
Short Summary:
Temperature Trends:
Virginia is dominated by a climate with average temperatures that generally stay above freezing in winter, warm summers, with little difference in precipitation from one season to the next, which is classified as a warm humid subtropical climate by Köppen classification. The exception is to the North and West of the state, where mountainous topography brings winter temperatures below freezing sometimes.1
Since 1900, average statewide temperature has risen approximately 1.5°F.2 This has not been accompanied by any increase in days classified as “very hot” (max temperatures 95°F or higher), which have declined since peaks in the 1930s. Similarly, no increase in nightly lows of 75°F or higher means nighttime temperatures aren’t getting warmer either.3 What drives the average increase, rather, is a slight decrease in the number of winter nights that are below 0°F, and a 2°F rise in summertime average temperature since the 1960s. This benefits Virginians because cold kills far more people each year than heat.4
Figure 1: Observed number of very hot days in Virginia since 1900. Dots are annual values. Orange bars show averages over a 5-year period, the last bar is a 6-year average. The horizontal black line shows the average of the entire period. Chart Source from Runkle, J., et al. Virginia State Climate Summary 2022.
Precipitation:
Annual precipitation varies greatly from year to year in Virginia. However, data indicates a slight trend towards an increase in annual precipitation over the past few decades, and with that trend, drought is not worsening.5
Figure 2: 12-Month precipitation data for Virginia, from 1900 – May 2026. Chart Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Statewide Time Series.
State-Specific Issues:
Hurricanes
As a coastal state, Virginia sometimes, though rarely, gets hit with hurricanes and tropical storms. There is no trend in hurricane strikes in the state.6 This comports with the general trend of decreased landfalls across the United States.7
Figure 3: Count per decade of landfalling hurricanes in Virginia from 1850-2025. Data from NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks HURDAT 2 database at https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/dataset/historical-hurricane-tracks-gis-map-viewer.
Sea Level Rise
Tide gauge data shows no acceleration in sea level rise for the state. Tide gauges across the state’s coastline measure a range of relative sea level rise from 4.02 mm/yr (0.15 in/yr) to 5.93 mm/yr (0.23 in/yr).8 Much of the measured relative sea level rise is due not to rising seas but, especially at the Chesapeake Bay area, is caused by coastal land subsidence and settling.9 Subsidence in that particular region is caused by geological faulting, compaction of the fill used to turn the swampy coastline into livable cities and towns, and groundwater withdrawals.
Agriculture:
Among Virgina’s major crops are soybeans, corn, hay, and cotton.
Yields of soybeans, corn, hay, and cotton have all risen over time, especially since the 1950s, aided by modestly increased annual precipitation, improved farming technology, and atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization.10
Figure 5: Chart Source: CO2 Coalition. Yields of Hay, Soybeans, Corn, and Cotton in the state of Virginia, vs. atmospheric carbon dioxide. Agricultural yield: USDA (2025b); CO2: Keeling et al. (2025)
Conclusion:
Virginia agriculture has benefitted from modest warming, higher CO2, and a slight improvement in annual precipitation. Sea level rise is not accelerating, and extreme weather events are not becoming more frequent or severe in the state.
References:
“United States Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification Map,” Plant Maps, https://www.plantmaps.com/koppen-climate-classification-map-united-states.php
“Virginia State Climate Summary 2022,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/va/
Ibid
“Temperature Related Deaths,” Climate at a Glance, The Heartland Institute, accessed May 29, 2026, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-temperature-related-deaths/
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, “Statewide Time Series,” Climate at a Glance, accessed May 29, 2026, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/44/pcp/12/1/1900-2026
“Continental United States Hurricane Impacts/Landfalls 1851–2024,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
“Sea Level Trends – Relative Sea Level Trends for Northern Atlantic,” NOAA, accessed May 29, 2026, https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/regionalcomparison.html?region=USNA
“Chesapeake Bay Land Subsidence and Sea Level Change: An Evaluation of Past and Present Trends and Future Outlook,” Virginia Institute of Marine Science, https://scholarworks.wm.edu/entities/publication/ab267e3d-5c1f-42b0-8129-6e62d59ba38a
“Virginia and Climate Change: Separating Fact from Fiction,” CO2 Coalition, accessed May 29, 2026, https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-03-17-Virginia-and-CC-AW-digital-compressed.pdf.
Average annual temperatures have increased a modest 1.5°F since 1900 in Virginia.
There has been no increase in extremely hot days in the state.
Virginia has seen a slight increase in precipitation in recent decades, benefiting agriculture.
Extreme weather such as hurricanes is not getting worse.
Staple crops like corn, hay, wheat, and cotton have seen increasing yields.
Short Summary:
Temperature Trends:
Virginia is dominated by a climate with average temperatures that generally stay above freezing in winter, warm summers, with little difference in precipitation from one season to the next, which is classified as a warm humid subtropical climate by Köppen classification. The exception is to the North and West of the state, where mountainous topography brings winter temperatures below freezing sometimes.1
Since 1900, average statewide temperature has risen approximately 1.5°F.2 This has not been accompanied by any increase in days classified as “very hot” (max temperatures 95°F or higher), which have declined since peaks in the 1930s. Similarly, no increase in nightly lows of 75°F or higher means nighttime temperatures aren’t getting warmer either.3 What drives the average increase, rather, is a slight decrease in the number of winter nights that are below 0°F, and a 2°F rise in summertime average temperature since the 1960s. This benefits Virginians because cold kills far more people each year than heat.4
Figure 1: Observed number of very hot days in Virginia since 1900. Dots are annual values. Orange bars show averages over a 5-year period, the last bar is a 6-year average. The horizontal black line shows the average of the entire period. Chart Source from Runkle, J., et al. Virginia State Climate Summary 2022.
Precipitation:
Annual precipitation varies greatly from year to year in Virginia. However, data indicates a slight trend towards an increase in annual precipitation over the past few decades, and with that trend, drought is not worsening.5
Figure 2: 12-Month precipitation data for Virginia, from 1900 – May 2026. Chart Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Statewide Time Series.
State-Specific Issues:
Hurricanes
As a coastal state, Virginia sometimes, though rarely, gets hit with hurricanes and tropical storms. There is no trend in hurricane strikes in the state.6 This comports with the general trend of decreased landfalls across the United States.7
Figure 3: Count per decade of landfalling hurricanes in Virginia from 1850-2025. Data from NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks HURDAT 2 database at https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/dataset/historical-hurricane-tracks-gis-map-viewer.
Sea Level Rise
Tide gauge data shows no acceleration in sea level rise for the state. Tide gauges across the state’s coastline measure a range of relative sea level rise from 4.02 mm/yr (0.15 in/yr) to 5.93 mm/yr (0.23 in/yr).8 Much of the measured relative sea level rise is due not to rising seas but, especially at the Chesapeake Bay area, is caused by coastal land subsidence and settling.9 Subsidence in that particular region is caused by geological faulting, compaction of the fill used to turn the swampy coastline into livable cities and towns, and groundwater withdrawals.
Agriculture:
Among Virgina’s major crops are soybeans, corn, hay, and cotton.
Yields of soybeans, corn, hay, and cotton have all risen over time, especially since the 1950s, aided by modestly increased annual precipitation, improved farming technology, and atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization.10
Figure 5: Chart Source: CO2 Coalition. Yields of Hay, Soybeans, Corn, and Cotton in the state of Virginia, vs. atmospheric carbon dioxide. Agricultural yield: USDA (2025b); CO2: Keeling et al. (2025)
Conclusion:
Virginia agriculture has benefitted from modest warming, higher CO2, and a slight improvement in annual precipitation. Sea level rise is not accelerating, and extreme weather events are not becoming more frequent or severe in the state.
References:
“United States Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification Map,” Plant Maps, https://www.plantmaps.com/koppen-climate-classification-map-united-states.php
“Virginia State Climate Summary 2022,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/va/
Ibid
“Temperature Related Deaths,” Climate at a Glance, The Heartland Institute, accessed May 29, 2026, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-temperature-related-deaths/
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, “Statewide Time Series,” Climate at a Glance, accessed May 29, 2026, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/44/pcp/12/1/1900-2026
“Continental United States Hurricane Impacts/Landfalls 1851–2024,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
“Sea Level Trends – Relative Sea Level Trends for Northern Atlantic,” NOAA, accessed May 29, 2026, https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/regionalcomparison.html?region=USNA
“Chesapeake Bay Land Subsidence and Sea Level Change: An Evaluation of Past and Present Trends and Future Outlook,” Virginia Institute of Marine Science, https://scholarworks.wm.edu/entities/publication/ab267e3d-5c1f-42b0-8129-6e62d59ba38a
“Virginia and Climate Change: Separating Fact from Fiction,” CO2 Coalition, accessed May 29, 2026, https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-03-17-Virginia-and-CC-AW-digital-compressed.pdf.
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